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Gold Bull Market Looks Rested Ready to Soar

May 26, 2008
The price action in the gold bull market has probably caused a lot of nervous concern on the part of gold traders over the past few weeks.

After soaring to all time nominal highs above $1000 an ounce earlier this year the gold market pulled back about 25%, enough to shake out the weaker speculators and gold traders and to make the strong ones wonder if the bull move was all over for this market cycle.

Now that the US dollar has started to tank once again and the price of oil is nearing $130 a barrel, gold is back to the $920 level and the bull looks to be rested enough to enter a new phase of the bull market.

The move up in gold has so far been pretty orderly. There has been no hyperbolic spike action that typically signals the end of a bull market move. I expect that we are about to enter a crazy stage where prices will go ballistic.

On an inflation adjusted basis it will take a price of about $2350 an ounce to top the all time high of about $850 set way back in 1980. When you look at the roaring bull market in crude oil with the price headed even higher to probably $150 to $200 a barrel this price doesn't seem to be as far out of reach as it did a year or so ago.

I strongly expect that the real excitement in the gold market is yet to come. Keep your eyes on the price action of the US Dollar to get a good indication of events to come. The Fed is going to have a hard time raising interest rates in the US with the US economy as soft as it is. In fact, the Fed may further reduce rates to try and keep the US out of a deep and long recession.

As long as the housing market continues to decline the Fed will be in a no win situation. Even though inflation is picking up and accelerating the Fed will find it difficult to combat it by raising rates as higher rates would put further downside pressure on housing and therefore the economy. And keep in mind it is a Presidential election year.

Yes, yes, you are right. The Fed is supposed to be above politics. But since the Fed is located in Washington, D.C. do you really think they can avoid political pressures?

As the Dollar comes under renewed pressure look for gold to take off in earnest. A Dollar and stock market collapse may present a real challenge to financial markets at some point, probably this year or next. Should the Dollar collapse panic buying in gold would probably place gold's price pattern squarely on a hyperbolic curve.

If you are a long term holder of gold your big payoff is probably near. Just don't forget to sell on the way up. Once the party is over there will be no time to even turn out the lights. Panic buying can turn into panic selling in a flash.
About the Author
Gerald "Taipan" Greene is a retired forex trader and portfolio manager who worked in Asia for over 20 years. The nickname was acquired in Hong Kong and is now used for a number of financial, political, and Internet business related blogs. One of them is at Commodities Futures Trader
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