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Prelude to War. Part II

Aug 17, 2007
Why would Iran want to start a fight? The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a true believer of a bloke called the Mahdi. Ahmadinejad and his mates have said many times they want to wipe Israel off the map, destroy America, bring about an Islamic world etc etc. All of this would be funny if Ahmadinejad wasn't about to commission nuclear weapons and wasn't successfully reeling in Indonesia and every other Muslim state and individual into the great plan. It truly is a great plan bringing peace and prosperity for everyone that is either Muslim, dead, or forced to live under strict Islamic law. But I get the feeling they prefer dead.

What makes Ahmadinejad so dangerous? The Iranian leader believes he is on a divine mission. Ahmadinejad is devoted to the cause of the hidden Imam, a Messiah-like figure of Shia Islam, and the president believes that he must prepare the country for his return. Ahmadinejad's government donated about $30 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a popular site where pilgrims drop messages to the Hidden Imam into a holy well. All streams of Islam believe in the Mahdi, the saviour who will appear at the End of Days. It is commonly believed that Mr Ahmadinejad and his cabinet have signed a "contract" pledging themselves to work for the return of the Mahdi.

Iran's dominant "Twelver" sect believes the Mahdi will be Mohammed ibn Hasan, regarded as the 12th Imam, or righteous descendant of the Prophet Mohammad. He is said to have gone into "occlusion" in the ninth century, at the age of five. His return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war and bloodshed. After a cataclysmic confrontation with evil and darkness, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.

Ahmadinejad appears to believe that these events are close and that he can influence the divine timetable. In Mr Ahmadinejad's opening speech to the United Nations. The world heard the president speak in apocalyptic terms of Iran struggling against an evil West that sought to promote "state terrorism", impose "the logic of the dark ages" and divide the world into "light and dark countries".
Ahmadinejad's rant ended with an appeal to God to "hasten the emergence of your last repository, the Promised One, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace".
In a video distributed by an Iranian web site last November, one of his Iranian colleagues had claimed to see a glow of light around the president as he began his speech to the UN.

"I felt it myself too," Mr Ahmadinejad stated. "I felt that all of a sudden the atmosphere changed there. And for 27-28 minutes all the leaders did not blink. It's not an exaggeration, because I was looking. They were astonished, as if a hand held them there and made them sit. It had opened their eyes and ears for the message of the Islamic Republic." Actually they were just plain amazed at Ahmadinejad's craziness.

So what is going to happen next? Like I said before, it looks like the show will really get underway when one of the three triggers is squeezed resulting in a full on regional if not global war. But it gets worse. There are other triggers, not as reliable but still very probable if not most likely. These are:
1. Musharraf being over thrown and Pakistan being ruled by fundamentalists. Fundamentalists with nukes who are good friends with Osama bin Laden.
2. The Saudi government is over thrown.
3. North Korea does something stupid. (Its already helping Iran's nuke program)
4. Another combination of events, like terrorists with WMD from who knows where. (Iran?)

The great oil plot.
This year Iran makes an extra 50 billion dollars. It's a great world. All they have to do is make a few noises, the world gets nervous, oil prices go up and they make more money. Makes you wonder what they spend that on? Ahmadinejad might be certifiably crazy, but he isn't silly. Adding to this oil dimension he is dragging in Venezuela's Chavez (slightly nutty), Sudan and hopefully half of Iraq. Ahmadinejad will use our need for oil to fuel his bomb.

In addition to the triggers I have talked about, there are also several other major irritants that have helped develop the current situation.
1. China and oil. China's growing demand for oil is pushing prices up and flowing vast rivers of money to wobbly states like Iran and Venezuela. China doesn't put a moral price on oil and will pay anyone, eroding any control the rest of the world has over rogue nations. Dafur and Iran are classic examples.
2. Russia and China Arms Sales. These two countries are willing to sell missile and weapons technology to almost anyone. Especially if the sale ingratiates themselves to an oil producer. This is how Iran has achieved long-range nuclear delivery systems.
3. Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine are lightening rods for jihadis and recruitment issues, to hardening Muslim sentiment in mosques worldwide.
4. European ignorance or denial of the emerging conflict. European countries are anti Semite and anti American.
5. The United Nations, corrupt and run by despots, continues its history of catastrophic failure and is responsible for the deaths of millions.
6. North Korea is assisting Iran in its nuclear program and has a basket case mad man as a leader. Anything could happen there.
7. Taiwan/Korea. If anything big happens in the Middle East, we might well see China invade Taiwan and North Korea strike the south, exploiting a world committed elsewhere.

If you put all this together, it describes a fail-safe mechanism for global conflict.
About the Author
Kerry Plowright writes books and specializes in military
and strategic affairs. http://www.vostokstation.com.au
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