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Mortgage Interest Rates Jump Up

Jun 19, 2008
After several weeks of staying relatively flat mortgage interest rates jumped up this week. 30 Year mortgage went from 6.09 to 6.32. 15 Year Mortgage moved from 5.65 to 5.93. 5 Year rates went from 5.51 to 5.70. The only rate that was somewhat stable was 1 Year Arms which went up from 5.06 to 5.09. Two weeks ago we predicted that rates would increase over the summer and they seem to be doing exactly that.

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

May 29,2008
30-yr 6.08 15-yr 5.66 5-yr ARM 5.62 1-yr ARM 5.22

May 22,2008
30-yr 5.98 15-yr 5.55 5-yr ARM 5.61 1-yr ARM 5.24

May 15, 2008
30-yr 6.01 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.57 1-yr ARM 5.18

May 8, 2008
30-yr 6.05 15-yr 5.60 5-yr ARM 5.67 1-yr ARM 5.29

Using out free mortgage calculator lets see what the rate increase mean for the payments on a 200k mortgage. We calculated out the mortgage payments based on today's mortgage interest rates and rates a week and a month ago.

June 12th
30-yr $1240.55
15-yr $1680.15
5-yr ARM $1160.80
1-yr ARM $1084.67

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

May 8th, 2008
30-yr $1205.53
15-yr $1644.79
5-yr ARM $1157.00
1-yr ARM $1109.36

So for a 30 Year Mortgage on a 200k loan the mortgage payment went up about $30 or about 2.5 percent. The mortgage on a 15 Year mortgage also went up about $30. What is weird is rates on 1 Year ARMs stayed about the same and are actually down from a month ago. This makes no sense. Banks are dealing with foreclosures that are mostly coming from borrowers that got 5 and 1 Year ARMs. Basically when the ARMs reset borrowers are frequently unable to make the higher payments and wide up facing foreclosure.

One would think banks would be discouraging these high risk loans. I would like to think the banks know something I don't. But looking at their foolish behavior over the last few years (giving loans to everyone that walked in the door from 2004-2006) its a distinct possibility they are just plain foolish. So again this week 1 Year ARMs look attractive. Just remember in a year your rate and mortgage could be higher so it would be wise to have some cash on the side to pay a potentially higher mortgage. And I would expect rates to be higher one year from today.

So what would I expect to happen over the rest of the summer. First off I don't see rates going down. The FED has given numerous signals they don't plan to lower rates. Will rates continue to go up? I am not sure. I expected rates to creep up over the next month instead of jumping up this month. So I hope rates stay relatively flat but they could go higher over the next month.
About the Author
Escapeso Realty operates in the Austin real estate market. They provide a free mortgage calculator along with a tool to track mortgage interest rates.
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