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Lay The Favourite Horse on Betfair

Aug 6, 2008
A major change in the way you can gamble on horse racing, which is the most popular form of gambling, is the introduction of Betting Exchanges (such as Betfair) which give you the opportunity to Lay horses to lose as opposed to just backing them.

If you are laying a horse to lose and don't know anything about the horse apart from it's price then the shorter the price of that horse the more difficult it will be to get a value lay. Shorter priced horses win at a much closer percentage rate to their expected rate of winning and this is the reason.

The next paragraph explins how the shorter priced animals have a more efficient winning rate than the bigger priced horses.

The odds efficiency of an Evens bet is 96%. This means they are expected to win 50% of the time but actually only win 48.2% of the time. The odds efficiency of a 5/1 bet -s 89%. They are expected to win 16.7% of the time and only win 14.8% of the time. The odds efficiency of a 10/1 shot is 77%. The are expected to win 9.1% of the time and actually only win 7% of the time. The longer the odds the more inefficient the horse

Just simply laying all favourites is probably the main reason most people fail at this. People think the bank will not erode as quickly because they are laying at lower odds but it's a fact that laying all favourites just on price will fail as surely as backing higher priced horses just on price.

There is one exception to this rule: odds-on favourites. As will be shown in another article you can actually profit from laying odds-on favourites. And in one particular type of race, you can make spectacular profits from laying them.

Finding profitable favourites to lay.

The most true method of making a profit from laying favourites is by finding 'overbet' or false favourites.

Certain horses are over hyped by press and media tipsters and pundits and these are often very profitable for laying on Betfair. These can be hyped up for a variety of reasons such as the breeding or the trainer or even the jockey booking.

Every week there are many 'overbet' favourites. These are going to be the horses with the best form, jockey, trainer, sire, owner etc. They will be the ones which will attract the most money because they look like 'a winner'. The masses of punters out there do not understand value and are only looking for winners. With media pundits only interested in 'winners' too this creates 'overbet' favourites.

A structured approach to finding these false favourites is the only way to go about this and make consistent profits. What you need to do is find some facts or combination of facts about this horse in this race that most punters and pundits out there have not realised and which will affect the horses chance of winning this race.

If you find a race where the favourite seems to have a weakness or two then finding one or two other horses in the race who have ability and a fair chance can strengthen the opinion that the horse is worth laying.

It's a fact that thousands of punters back horses based on what a newspaper pundit says. Newspaper pundits tips are all largely form based. Thousands pick horses simply from the last 3 form figures and others follow tipsters. These then are all largely form based picks.

The job in hand then is to find the races where the favourite has been over hyped for any reason and likely to be 'overbet' The you have to find the reasons why this horse might not win this race and then find other horses that CAN win the race and you probably have a horse that you can lay to lose on Betfair.
About the Author
Mr Marsh has been a successful layer of horses on Betfair for over 6 years and his professional service 'Only Profit Betting' gives out free tips for horses to lay on Betfair. His phenominal strike of his service is 90%.
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