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Two Sports Betting Examples: New England at Buffalo and Minnesota at Seattle

Aug 17, 2007
Let's look at this first game, New England at Buffalo. The analysis of this game was 100% correct. When you read the analysis, notice how the important stats were accurate, and how the overall perception of the game was correct:

New England - 5 1/2 at Buffalo

I know everybody's first reaction is to go for the home dogs, especially in a game like this that looks like a revenge game. But when you look a little closer at the Bills, you will see how bad they really are.

In their last two games the Bills have been outgained 745-387 in total yards, and in their last 16 games, they've managed to score over 17 points just 4 times. New England is on a 7-1 ATS run as road favorite, and 16-6 ATS run as a division favorite. Further, the Patriots are on a 18-4 run ATS coming off games giving up 10 points or less. New England is also on a 12-6-2 ATS run against the Bills. NE is also on a 7-3 ATS run in their last ten games when favored by less than 6 points. This tells me that the public has been underestimating the methodical, star-less Pats.

If that's not enough stats for you, take a look at this nugget of information... NE is 16-2 ATS in their 2nd games of the season against Buffalo. Why? Because NE is a much better team and the Bills might be able to surprise them the firt time around. By the 2nd game, Buffalo has no more tricks up their sleeve, and they're usually already out of contention.

Bottom line, NE is looking like they're determined to get back to the Super Bowl. They'll dominate the line of scrimmage, and control the tempo of the game. Look for the Pats to come out on top in this one, 31-17
Minnesota at Seattle -6 1/2

The second game was Minnesota at Seattle. The analysis of this game was 100% wrong! What happened here was that Minnesota reversed the way they were playing, and Seattle lost their starting QB. Sometimes these types of things can't be accounted for. Here's the complete analysis:

Minnesota is on the road and has been struggling on offense, scoring only 2 TD's in their last 16 quarters. They're going to continue to struggle in Seattle against the Seahawks under-appreciated defense. The Seahawks are always tough at home, even back in the days when they were a bad team. Now that they're a Super Bowl contender, they're that much tougher.

Here's some interesting numbers... The Vikings are only 7-16 ATS as a non-division road dog, and are on an 0-9 run ATS on the road against the NFC West. The Vikes are also on a 3-7 run ATS when getting 7 points or less. What's worse is that they're only 2-8 SU in these same games. In this day and age of parity in the NFL, how can the Vikings consistently lose so many games that are supposed to be close match-ups? Because they're over-rated. The public perception of how good the Vikes are comes a lot from their solid home field advantage, which won't mean a thing when they're playing 2000 miles away in Seattle.

Here's another interesting stat... in Seattle's last 12 games, the home team is 10-1-1 ATS. Here again the public's perceptions are influenced by how well Seattle plays at home.

Finally, let's forget all the numbers for a second. Nobody playing in the game is going to care what they did ATS or SU. They're going to be focused on the guy across from the ball. Seattle is a FAR better team than the Vikes. Let's not over-complicate this. Barring unforseen turn-overs, 82-yard punt returns, and phantom penalties (like in the Super Bowl) the smart money, high-percentage play is Seattle, -6 1/2.

What to learn from this? Keep in mind that sports betting is always about the law of averages. Winning is caused by only playing the high percentage games and not taking uneducated risks.
About the Author
David James is one of the world's foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting
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