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Online Sports Betting Secrets: Knowing When NOT To Bet

Aug 17, 2007
Sports betting can be very profitable if you know the secrets the "smart money" gamblers use to consistently make money. One of the biggest secrets that smart money gamblers use is knowing when NOT to bet.

Here's a perfect example. I analyzed the West Virginia vs. Louisville game, and concluded that West Virginia had the edge in the game. However, I also realized that there were a lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not bet on this game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:

West Virginia vs. Louisville

This game has all the signs of being one of the best games of the year, with both teams coming into the game 7-0. It's #3 ranked West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, both with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year's game was a classic, with West Virginia coming back from being down big in the 4th quarter to winning in overtime.

So what's the game look like this year?

If this game were being played at a neutral field, West Virginia would probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since the game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let's see if this makes sense...

West Virginia is on an unprecedented roll. They haven't lost since Oct. 1, 2005, going 14-0 since they lost to Virginia Tech. In the last two seasons they're 13-5 ATS as well. They're also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 ROAD games.

These are some very impressive stats that tilt the scales in favor of WVU for tonight's game. Plus, the added bonus is that WVU is GETTING +1 point. This may not seem like much, but in a close match-up like this, that extra point could make the difference between a push and a loss.

But what about Louisville?

Louisville's stats are almost as good as WVU's -except when it comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their last 10 games, Louisville is only 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

And if you're leaning towards WVU, here's a scary stat... Louisville hasn't lost at home since December 18, 2003! During this current run Louisville is averaging 49.4 points per game at home, while averaging only giving up 15.7 points per game at home. In case you didn't do the math, that means since their last home loss they've averaged beating their opponents by about 34 points per game.

What's more impressive, the average line in these games has only been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the spread, on average, by 13 points per game at home since 2003.

Wow... how can you go against that?

Here's how...

Most of those stats were built up during the 2005 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been closer to good than great. They've had recent games in which they've only scored 28, 23, 24 points. And these games weren't against Ohio St. or Michigan. They were against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.

The bottom line is that this is still a close game to call. But what I look for is West Virginia's defense to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there's no reason to think WVU can't hold them to the low to mid 20's. My honest recommendation is to lay off this game and not bet at all. There are better games this weekend with more clear-cut advantages.

The final score of this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to return a punt for a TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia's edge wasn't so big that they could still win after making so many mistakes. By not betting on this game, people serious about sports betting saved money they can put to better use on upcoming games.
About the Author
David James is one of the world's foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting
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