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Online Sports Betting Tips: When To Bet On A Big Favorite

Aug 17, 2007
Have you ever wondered how the sports betting "smart money" became the smart money? Do you wonder what the football betting smart money does differently than the amateurs?

Sports betting experts aren't afraid to bet on a heavy favorite, even if it means giving up a lot of points to the betting line. To understand this better, and to see how to make money with sports betting, take a look at my analysis of the Utah St. vs. Nevada game:

Utah St. at Nevada -29

29 points seems like a lot, but when you're talking about a team like Nevada, I don't think it's enough.
One of the reasons we seem to win a high percentage of our games taking big favorites is because when teams are so completely mis-matched, like in this game with Nevada and Utah St., it's nearly impossible for the odds makers to be accurate when they set their lines. In fact it's not the odds makers' job to be accurate -their job is to set the line to balance the money on both sides.

Most amateur gamblers have a psychological hang-up of giving so many points. It's just human nature to want to get things, not give them, so the lines on "big line" games are often much lower than they should be. This is an example of such a game, in my opinion.

Nevada is 8-1 ATS this season, averaging over 32 points per game, whle Utah St. has given up 48 and 63 points in their last two games. Nevada has also won their last 5 ATS, and has rushed for a whopping 230, 236, and 222 yards in their last three games.

The simple analysis is this: Utah St. isn't going to be able to stop Nevada's offense from putting up a lot of points. The only way Utah St. covers is if they score a lot of points, and that's not going to be likely when you consider they have the #114th scoring offense in the country. Add to that the fact that Utah St. has not only been bad SU, but they've also lost 5 of 7 ATS.

Nevada is also extremely tough at home, going both 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in thier last 10 home games. And one final note, Nevada's home field is turf, not the grass Utah St. plays on at home. Utah St. is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on turf, and 3-7 ATS. The turf is going to magnify Nevada's speed advantage, and leave Utah St. grasping at air much of the day. I look for Nevada to run up and down the field, winning easily 48-13.

The actual final score in this game was Nevada 42, Utah St. 0.

By repeating this type of analysis over and over, somebody serious about sports betting can make big money!
About the Author
David James is one of the world's foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting
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