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Are the Wars on Terror Winnable
Any serious analysis of the status of the the so-called war on terror brings up an apparent contradiction.
On the one hand, any opinion survey in the affected areas clearly shows that terrorist entities or radical groups allied with them, such as Al Qaeda and the Taliban, are deeply unpopular. On the other is the fact that despite a major outlay of resources and the superiority of US forces, the various conflicts drag on and the final outcome is far from certain.
US troops are not to blame. Aside from a few isolated cases they have performed with dignity, honor and professionalism. They also have undeniable superiority in firepower and organization.
Also to be set aside is the argument that the enemy benefits from the support of rogue states such as Iran. Such support, when it exists, is very limited in comparison to the huge US effort. In addition Iran or other states might provide some weapons and training, but not the rank-and-file fighters willing to face US firepower.
The vast majority of these fighters are not members of terrorist organizations, which by necessity are always small and secretive. Nevertheless they fight alongside them, thereby providing true terrorists support, cover, and the opportunity to recruit members and raise funds.
True terrorist numbers are too small to account for anything except focused, showcase operations. If they could be isolated from the much larger numbers of combatants who do not share their goals or tactics, their elimination could be achieved with a relatively low expenditure of resources.
This separation between true terrorists and the much larger numbers of those who could simply be called insurgents is therefore the key to winning the various conflicts we are currently involved in.
What are these insurgents then fighting for? There are two answers to this question, and both involve basic US policies.
The first fundamental issue is that no population easily accepts foreign occupation. The standard US policy within the war on terror has been the invasion and occupation of suspect territory by large conventional forces. This is then followed by some form of what we call nation-building, or the restructuring of the subject society according to a model we define. Such an approach will inevitably provoke resistance, supported by appeals to defend traditional culture and values.
The second issue is the US preference for unitary government, ignoring the fact that many of the countries subject to the war on terror are not nations, but fairly artificial states comprising a variety of ethnic, religious and cultural entities. Such entities have legitimate grievances and needs which generally cannot be met within a centralized government structure, however democratic it is in theory.
Neglect of legitimate aspirations for cultural and political autonomy breeds discontent, which is compounded by the humiliation and collateral damage brought by occupation. This creates a fertile ground for insurgencies of various kinds, within which genuine terrorists can pose a sympathizers and allies.
Such insurgencies can be kept down by brute force, but they will continue to smolder underground, ready to explode as soon as force is removed. Their resolution requires a basic reassessment of our policies along the following lines:
First, we must recognize that it is counter-productive for the US to attempt to shape foreign states and cultures according to our own concepts, particularly is this is accomplished through military force.
Second, the United States government must recognize and support the principle of self-determination for ethnic, religious and cultural communities.
The recommended policies would not only be in accord with the values on which our own nation is built, but it will provide with far more leverage than the strategies we currently use.
About the Author Jacek Popiel was born in Poland and educated in Africa, Canada, and the US. His career spanned military service and international business development. He is currently a writer and his first book Viable Energy Now will be published in the coming weeks. Visit: http://voyonspotsdemiel.blogspot.com
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