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NFL Situation Spotlight - #51 - Teams Coming Off A Clutch Win (CW)

Feb 21, 2008
It should come as no surprise to even the most novice of pro-football bettors that the outcome of a team's last game can have a significant effect on how they fare versus the number in their next contest. One particular area of interest in this regard concerns teams coming off a Clutch Win.

A 'Clutch' win-by my definition-is when a team tallies the final score of a game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one.

Teams coming off this so-called 'gut-check' win are slightly worse-than-average versus the spread in the following week (400-418 ATS since '94) which in itself, is not a profitable situation when wagering at 10/11 odds.

The Clutch Win situation only becomes interesting when we add a second Primary condition that specifies that the current opponent of the team in question has a worse-than-average Starting Field Position Average Against (SFPA). The league average for SFPA is usually around 30 and in this case, we are interested in teams that have at-least a 31 average or higher.

SFPA basically tells us where a team's defense normally starts out on the field. Squads with a high SFPA usually have a higher-than-average number of interceptions going against them in their own half of the field and also rank near the bottom of the league in terms of how well they defend on kick-off and punt returns.

Teams with a high SFPA are also more likely to be near the bottom of the league in the ATS Wins department, but, unlike teams that falter against the number due to an ineffective offense or defense, teams that have been hurt by INT's and long run-backs on opposing returns are much more likely to bounce back in future games and provide the astute bettor with considerable line-value.

Combining this line-value with a team in position for a possible let-down (due to the Clutch win factor) gives us a formidable negative situation that is 52-110 ATS (32.1%) ATS since 1994 and 3-8 ATS so far in 2007!

Rounding out this situation are 2 Secondary conditions which weed out opponents with a weak rush defense (evidenced by a high 1st Quarter Rush % against) and eliminates games in the post-season or Week 17.

When it comes to situational handicapping, it's always best to work with trends that have as few conditions as possible and this one is very effective with only 4. Here are all the details:

(Notes: ASM stands for Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this system at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average Spread for teams in this situation.)

Situational Trend #51 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Last Game Clutch Win (CW).
2) Opponent Starting Field Position Average Against (SFPA) > 31.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Opponent 1st Quarter Rush% Against (Q1R%A)
2) Before Week 17.

Situation Stats

ASM: -6.6
Home%: 43.9
Dog%: 53.5
TDIS%: 100.0
WT%: 69.3
SPR: 0.06
Top Teams: CHI(7); CLE(6); DAL(6); STL(6)

Situation Records

Overall (Since '94): 21-86 ATS
2007 Season: 3-8 ATS (Week 2-10)
2006 Season: 2-9 ATS
2005 Season: 5-12 ATS
2004 Season: 2-7 ATS

Last 3 Results (not incl '07). Pick in Brackets.
2006 WK16--CAR 26 DET 21 (CHI -5) P
2006 WK14--ARI 27 SEA 21 (SEA -3.5) L
2006 WK14--PIT 27 CLE 7 (CLE +7.5) L
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas Point Spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized Team Ratings and Betting Systems, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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